When it comes to game development, delays are an unfortunate reality. But what can developers do to avoid the stress and burnout that often come with unrealistic release dates? According to Josh Sawyer, designer of iconic games like Fallout: New Vegas and Pillars of Eternity, there are key signs to look out for to identify when a game may not be ready for its prospective shipping date.
Sawyer shared his "useful skill" on Twitter, starting by acknowledging that predicting a game's completion is challenging. However, he believes that identifying when a game won't meet its deadline can be done with close to 100% accuracy. He outlined several indicators that suggest a game may not ship at a stated date.
One obvious sign, Sawyer noted, is when data shows the trajectory of content completion far surpasses the release date, even if some features are cut. While cutting content might save development time, there are also costs involved in doing so. "Cutting content does save development time, but there are also costs to cutting," he explained.
Another indicator Sawyer pointed out is when content (such as maps or missions) is developed while primary gameplay features are still being taken to minimum viable product (MVP). Without a solid understanding of gameplay mechanics, content cannot be designed effectively.
Assuming the goal is not to create shovelware (i.e., releasing a low-quality game just to meet a deadline), there are several clear indicators that suggest a game won't ship at its stated date. By recognizing these signs early on, developers can set realistic expectations and avoid unnecessary stress.
In addition to these indicators, Sawyer emphasized the importance of predictable and reliable content creation, all significant gameplay features being at MVP, and all pipelines (such as creature or conversation design) being fully stood up end to end. These factors are not arcane knowledge within the industry, but rather essential components for setting accurate release dates.
While delays are never ideal, it's crucial to be realistic about them for the sake of developer health. "What's infuriating about silly exec and production dates is that anyone with a decent amount of experience knows that if a, b, and c are not there, they can't reliably predict an end point," Sawyer said. "All it does is burn out and demoralize the developers and (justifiably) erode confidence in management."
By recognizing these signs and taking steps to address them early on, game developers can avoid the stress and burnout associated with unrealistic release dates.